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For the Heat, the devil is in the details

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Heat owner Micky Arison has been more active in the lockout negotiations. Why?

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Two weeks ago Heat owner Micky Arison took an early-morning flight from Miami to New York to sit in on what was supposed to be an important negotiating session in the ongoing collective bargaining talks.

According to sources, his presence at the meeting was met with some surprise by his peers. The meeting included the owners’ labor relations committee, which is led by Spurs owner Peter Holt. But Arison is not on that committee and, after spending most of the summer in Europe on vacation and business, he hadn’t even been in attendance at the most recent owners’ meetings.

The reason for Arison’s uptick in interest late in the process – he tweeted this week that he was changing his plans and cutting short a West Coast business trip to make sure he was in New York for next week’s crucial mediation session as well – isn’t hard to identify.

As the league and players haggle out what a new system might look like, the devil could be in the details for the Heat. Knowing this Arison appears to be keeping a close eye on the process with so much potentially on the line.

No one is hiding the Heat have become somewhat of a target as the talks have unfolded, one of the nasty side effects of the free agent haul of 2010 that continues to drive some bad blood amongst Arison’s peers. Not just the obvious adversaries like Cavs owner Dan Gilbert and Mavs owner Mark Cuban, either.

Across the board, sources say, owners have been in favor of legislation that would potentially hamper the Heat’s chase to build a multi-championship winning team. It’s not directly a collective attempt to get the Heat back for working the current free agency and cap system like no one had before. There are some changes that owners had been planning to push for long before LeBron James and Chris Bosh took their talents south. But making sure the Heat have a harder time is a tantalizing side benefit for some.

“There’s a feeling that, looking at teams like the Heat, you just can’t allow them to have certain benefits right now,” one league official said. “Yes, everyone is fighting about money. But there is also a fight about competitive balance and that is an important issue. You have to give everyone a fighting chance against the Heat, the Lakers and the Bulls of the world.”

The biggest threat to the Heat may have been averted recently when the owners dropped their long-standing request for a hard salary cap. Depending on how that was worked out, there was a chance the Heat would have to break up their core of James, Bosh and Dwyane Wade just to be able to field a team. While that doomsday scenario for the team looks like it can be forgotten for the moment, there are other issues that Arison and Pat Riley are keeping a close eye on.

What becomes of the mid-level exception is at the forefront right now. The players are firmly attempting to keep it to allow teams over the salary cap to be involved in free agency each summer. The mid-level exception has developed into the most important free agent mechanism.

The league initially wanted to kill altogether it to force owners to reduce spending. The players, naturally, started out with a plan to get two mid-level exceptions. There’s no ambiguity there. Needless to say, it’s been an ongoing issue during the talks. The most recent proposals have it being eliminated for teams who are paying the luxury tax, which the Heat most certainly will be.

After locking five players into contracts five years or longer in 2010, the Heat won’t have cap space coming any time soon. After trading away five first-round picks as they cleared that cap space and then in making sign-and-trade deals for James and Bosh, getting up and developing young players will also be much more of a challenge in Miami. Because of the construct of their roster plus the age and injury issues that Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem have, the Heat also currently have very limited trade options as well.

That leaves the mid-level exception as the primary tool for the Heat to attempt to upgrade their team. With a significant hole at the center position, the Heat are hoping to have that money available to them to sign a legitimate center before next season, for example. And to plug whatever holes open around James, Bosh and Wade over the next three seasons. If that is taken away and they are forced to attempt to pick up aged veterans past their prime at the league minimum they may find themselves in the same position they were in last season. That was relying on players like Juwan Howard, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Mike Bibby to play key roles.

The Heat have proven they can draw veterans to Miami for less than market value for a chance to win. But they haven’t proven those end of the road players can help them win a championship.

Another issue the Heat will be keeping a close watch on is how the so-called Bird exception is changed. That rule, created nearly 30 years ago, has always allowed teams to exceed the salary cap to sign their own free agents. NBA Commissioner David Stern said this week on WFAN in New York that some owners were in favor of eliminating the rule entirely. In most recent talks, there have been league proposals to restrict its usage to one player per season or perhaps even just once over a two-year span.

Any sort of restriction on the Bird exception might have consequences. With Bosh, Wade and James all scheduled to be free agents together again in 2014, it might make it impossible to re-sign them. That may seem like it’s a long way off to be concerned with but it isn’t. Such a rule might force the Heat to look to break up their Big Three early to make sure they don’t lose one or two of them for nothing. Combined with a more restrictive mid-level exception, the Heat may be forced into closely examining trading one of their big names before 2013.

Then there’s the potentially punitive luxury tax that owners want to enforce. Various reports have suggested the owners want to increase the penalty for teams way over the cap. Recent proposals have included a quadrupling of the dollar-for-dollar tax in certain situations. The Heat are headed in this direction. They already have $71 million in salaries committed for the 2013-14 season to just six players, for example.

Despite their success, the Heat currently do not have the sort of high-dollar local television deals like the traditional big tax payers like the Lakers and Knicks. While Arison is one of the wealthiest NBA owners – Forbes recently listed him as the third-richest at $4.2 billion – his history does not indicate he enjoys deficit spending. Despite the Heat’s windfall over the last year, most employees are currently swallowing 25 percent pay cuts and that could grow if the lockout continues. At the tax numbers proposed by his fellow owners, Arison could be headed for massive tax bills in two or three years.

And the reality is, no one will be in the least bit sympathetic to the Heat if these changes force them to alter their plans. Arison doesn’t enjoy much support for his position. The small markets want his tax money and don’t want him to continue to bid against them for free agents. The big market teams don’t want to see the biggest competition get better.

If there was anyone in the league who didn’t mind the status quo it was the Heat. No one is sure just how much will be different once all this is finally settled but there’s no chance of no change. Which means the Heat might be forced to make some unwanted changes, too.

Turning Up The Heat: LeBron James

AP Photo/Lynne Sladky
LeBron James may be the most complete player in the league, but he's far from perfect.

What worked

Once again, James showed that he is the best all-around player in the NBA, and one of the best talents the game has ever seen. Even though he had a "down" year statistically compared to his last two seasons, he still led the NBA in PER once again, and could have won his third straight MVP award if his late-game issues hadn't cost the Heat the East's top spot. In the playoffs, James went to another level, eviscerating both the Celtics and the Bulls with brilliant offense, lock-down defense, and some incredible crunch-time play.

TURNING UP THE HEAT

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John Krolik takes a closer look at Miami's rotation players:

• 10/4: Eddie House
• 10/5: Joel Anthony
• 10/6: James Jones
• 10/7: Norris Cole
• 10/10: Mike Miller
• 10/11: Udonis Haslem
• 10/12: Mario Chalmers
• 10/13: Chris Bosh
• 10/14: Dwyane Wade
• 10/17: LeBron James

What didn't work

Then the finals came. For the second straight season, James simply melted down in a playoff series, and was nowhere to be seen in the fourth quarter of Game 2 or the entirety of Game 4, both of which the Heat could have easily won. James didn't make up for it in Games 5 or 6, and the Heat lost a Finals that they could easily have swept largely because of LeBron's stunningly passive and ineffective play.

What can be improved

Obviously, the most important thing for LeBron is that he needs to make it all the way to the finish line next season without imploding, but that's a battle that will take place between his ears.

A more tangible improvement that LeBron can make is to start playing more like a big man. James is a very large human being, who does not utilize his size as much as he could on the basketball court, specifically on the offensive end. James is currently listed at 6'8, 250. That number is a bit of a joke. When LeBron came into the league, he looked like this and was listed at 6'8, 240. If you think this player has gained zero inches in height and only 10 pounds since his rookie year, I don't know what to tell you. Many scouts believe LeBron has gained an extra inch since coming into the league, and almost everyone agrees that he now weights somewhere between 260 and 275 pounds.

If LeBron was a power forward, he would be slightly short for the position, although he certainly wouldn't be the shortest power forward out there, and he'd probably be one of the strongest and bulkiest power forwards in the league.

In spite of that fact, LeBron absolutely refuses to play like a big man. I'm not even talking about LeBron's embarrassing lack of a post game, which is definitely an issue, but LeBron's lack of a post game is just a symptom of a greater disease; even though LeBron has the speed to play point guard and the size to play power forward, he only chooses to fully utilize the former attribute on offense.

LeBron's lack of a post game has been discussed at length by a lot of people, including me, so I won't spend to much time on it here. For now, let's just say that we can all agree that a little more footwork, a little more patience under the rim, and a lot more aggression in the post would serve LeBron very well when he gets matched up against smaller players. LeBron doesn't even need a McHale-like set of counter-moves or Kobe-like footwork to be effective in the post -- LeBron has roughly the same size and strength advantage against opposing swingmen as Shaq did against opposing centers, and Shaq dominated in the post for years with a jump hook over his left shoulder, a spin dunk over the right shoulder, and a modified, weird-looking righty hook over his right shoulder if he wasn't close enough to dunk it. All LeBron needs to do to be a force in the post is commit to getting deep position, develop a reliable baby hook or floater over his left shoulder along with a counter-move over his right shoulder (and remember, LeBron is almost completely ambidextrous around the rim), and he's an instant force, but LeBron prefers to just tentatively dribble in, wait for the double-team to come, and pass out.

However, I'm less focused on LeBron's post game, or lack thereof, than most people. LeBron in the post is a dangerous weapon, but it's still one-on-one basketball unless LeBron gets a double team and passes out of it, which he already does the vast majority of the time he has the ball in the post. A post game would make James that much harder to defend, but he's already very, very difficult to defend one-on-one. A post game would certainly help LeBron, but it wouldn't be the end-all be-all for him.

What could make LeBron even more unstoppable than a post game would be a willingness to work to create offensive opportunities without the ball in his hands. According to Synergy Sports, LeBron only had 29 possessions as the "roll man" in a pick-and-roll last year, 120 possessions coming off of a cut, and only 71 possessions were initiated by LeBron grabbing an offensive rebound. Overall, less than one percent of LeBron's possessions came as the "roll man" in a pick-and-roll, coming off of a cut, or after an offensive rebound. For a 6'9, 265 (best guess) pound behemoth of a man, that's an embarrassingly low figure.

Possible lockout viewing material

Even though Blake Griffin only has one year of NBA experience under his belt, James could learn a thing or two by watching the reigning Rookie of the Year play basketball. Griffin isn't a franchise player just because he has an unmatched flair for finishing alley-oops; he's constantly working his butt off to get opportunities at the rim, whether that means setting the screen and rolling hard, finding a weak spot and cutting through it, crashing the offensive glass, or looking for a lob in transition.

According to Synergy, Griffin, who is roughly the same size and has the same off-the-charts athleticism as James, had 257 possessions as the "roll man" in pick-and-roll situations, 199 possessions off of cuts, and 192 possessions after he grabbed an offensive rebound. Obviously, Griffin created far, far more opportunities by using his size and working without the ball than LeBron did last season, and there's no reason that LeBron can't be the same kind of force on pick-and-rolls or cuts. (Rebounding is more of an innate skill, and has always been the most overrated part of James' game because of the triple-double fixation, but LeBron could probably work harder on the offensive glass as well.)

The fact of the matter is that LeBron already has two MVP awards and two conference championships with his current package of talent and skill, but remains ringless because he failed to apply those skills when it mattered most. At this point, it's far more important that LeBron understand what happened to him mentally in the Dallas series and make sure it doesn't happen again than it is for him to make any mechanical improvements to his game. However, if LeBron starts using his size like he should, both in the post and off the ball, he will become far more dangerous than he already is, and that will help him on his quest for the championship ring he's still desperately trying to obtain.

A plea for perspective on LeBron's legacy

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
For those who are quick to write off LeBron James, Michael Jordan's career offers a lesson.

LeBron James is 26 years old.

When Michael Jordan was 26 years old, he was a failure.

This might seem impossible to some. We're talking about the greatest winner of all-time. The most clutch basketball player ever to grace the Earth. A cold-blooded killer in crunch time. The trophies, the rings, the banners. It goes on and on.

But all the golden hardware and endless accolades that Jordan earned?

They came later in his career.

Yes, it's true that Michael Jordan was once considered a me-first gunner whose team always came up short. By the time Jordan finished up his age-26 season in 1989-90, he was the game's undisputed top scorer. But despite his scoring chops, Jordan had nothing in the win column to show for it.

First, a history lesson. Of Jordan's first ten playoff games, the Bulls lost nine of them. 1-9. As a rookie, his Bulls managed to win one game against the Milwaukee Bucks by two points. In Jordan's second season, the Bulls played the Boston Celtics in the first-round. Jordan averaged 43.7 points including a jaw-dropping 63-point performance in Game 2 that caused Larry Bird to profess, "It must be God disguised as Michael Jordan." The Celtics promptly swept the Bulls in three games. The next season, the Celtics pummeled the Bulls again in the playoffs, sweeping them in three games once more.

At this point, the 24-year-old Jordan boasted a 31.7 scoring average, but carried an embarrassing postseason record. It was painfully obvious that the game of basketball was more than just a one-on-five affair, and that Jordan needed help. In 1987-88, he would get it. That was the season in which Scottie Pippen and Horace Grant made their NBA debuts. That year, Chicago's youngsters finally cracked through the first-round of the playoffs before losing to the Detroit Pistons 4-1 in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

The following season, Jordan led Chicago all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals. But once again, the Pistons sent Jordan packing in six games. In 1989-90, Jordan came crawling back for more and the Pistons slammed the door on him yet again, upending the Bulls in seven games in a Eastern Conference Finals rematch.

When Michael Jordan was 26-years-old, he was perceived by many as a narcissistic dud and was treated as such. Don't believe it? Here's a excerpt from "The Jordan Rules" by Sam Smith that details Jordan's treatment at that point in his career:

The Pistons got their shots at Jordan. They love to taunt Jordan during games about his selfish play, his baldness (that's a specialty of John Salley), and how he enjoys being a loser.

"There's not one guy who sets the tone on our team," Salley liked to tell reporters during the 1990 playoffs. "That's what makes us a team. If one guy did everything, we wouldn't be a team. We'd be the Chicago Bulls.

Yes, the Chicago Bulls were whipping boys of the league, criticized for their dysfunctional and selfish play. And a 26-year-old bald superstar -- who had won the MVP, but not a championship -- was at the center of it all.

Selfish? Loser? Bald?

These are the piercing adjectives attached to a young Michael Jordan, but today, it echoes for LeBron James. Keep in mind, Jordan at 26 had never won a Finals game, much less played in a Finals game. But now we look back on Jordan as the most ruthless winner of all time. Back then, his sorry record spoke for itself.

Which brings us to Magic Johnson's recent comments.

The all-time great was a guest speaker at the University of Albany over the weekend and roasted LeBron James in front of a laughing audience. The former Los Angeles Lakers star, who as a player ironically battled the perception that he recoiled in crunch time, turned LeBron James into a punching bag, scoffing at the idea that the former two-time MVP could be considered in the same breath as Jordan and Kobe Bryant -- players who have won championships.

"Everybody's always asking, 'Who is better between Kobe (Bryant) and LeBron?'" Johnson said. "I'm like, Are you kidding me? I'm like you're kidding me ... Kobe, five championships; LeBron, zero."

"Come on, man, six championships for (Michael) Jordan," Johnson added. "You know that Michael averaged over 30 points every playoff series? Don't try to touch that."

And Johnson is right; the LBJ-MJ comparisons are absurd. But they are absurd because LeBron is 26 years old and somehow the ink is already drying on LeBron's legacy. There will come a time when we can rationally compare LeBron to Kobe and Jordan, but the time is not now.

Instead, we should exhibit some perspective. Why? Because a player's legacy changes with the seasons. If you doubt that, look no further than the perception of Dirk Nowitzki, who was considered flawed for 12 years and erased that legacy in a matter of days. And Jordan's career makeover makes Nowitzki's look like a facelift by comparison. When Jordan was LeBron's age, the world looked at his astonishing scoring average and tried to reconcile his eye-popping statistics with his underwhelming team record.

How can a player so good have such bad results?

If Jordan taught us anything, it's that we must be careful connecting the dots at such an early age. After failing to even reach the NBA Finals well into his career, Jordan had become an easy punchline. That loser. All those stats and no glory, everyone was quick to point out.

Six championships later, we know now that those doubters were a bit foolish. They overlooked this most important fact:

Michael Jordan was only 26 years old.
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Sources: Heat owner pushing for deal

If it were up to Heat owner Micky Arison, his team would be preparing for its final three preseason games right now and he’d be spending the majority of his time running his cruise lines and not at labor meetings in New York.

Even as the talks suffered their latest breakdown Thursday, two league sources said that Arison has been the most active owner in trying to push through a deal even as his peers balk at the players’ demands.

In his frustration Thursday night NBA Players Association head Billy Hunter said he felt there was a divide between big market and small market owners. He said that some big-market owners were ready end the lockout.

“The likes of (Lakers owner) Jerry Buss, (Knicks owner) Jim Dolan, Micky Arison, (Mavericks owner) Mark Cuban, I think those are the folks who wanted the deal, who were open to all kinds of suggestions, anything that could move the ball,” Hunter said. “But I think there’s a group of owners, the small markets in particular, that were dug in and I think they’re carrying the day.”

Multiple ownership sources disagree with Hunter’s assumption that the divide goes down market-size lines. Dolan and Buss, sources say, have been among the most aggressive owners pushing for reform throughout the process. However, sources say Hunter is right about Arison and his desire to make a deal.

This isn’t much of a surprise. With LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, the Heat are functioning well as a business with high ticket and sponsorship. Also with each of them having three years remaining before they can become free agents, the clock is ticking on Arison’s super team. He’s got plenty of incentive to represent his interests and try to get basketball re-started as soon as possible. But, as is clear, he doesn’t enjoy much support in his position.

As reported last week, Arison has taken steps to get more involved in the talks as they’ve heated up over the last month. He has been a regular attendee in talks with the union even though he is not on the 10-person labor committee.
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That is likely to continue even if expanding his influence is a significant challenge.

LeBron James uses Twitter to recruit

While the players union and NBA owners reconvened for talks on Thursday afternoon, the buzz in the basketball world was generated by something else: LeBron James' Twitter feed.

LeBron has never shied away from using the social media platform to stir up some discussion and his tweets on Thursday were no exception.

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JCrossover4 is the Twitter handle of Jamal Crawford, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent once the lockout ends. Crawford, 31, just finished his 11th season in the NBA, scored 14.2 points off the bench for the Atlanta Hawks and posted a 14.2 player efficiency rating (PER).

Crawford and LeBron have spent some time together this offseason, playing in various charity exhibitions around the country. Crawford recently played with LeBron at the South Florida All-Star Classic earlier this month.

It's interesting that LeBron singled out Crawford because his value would be redundant on the Heat. Why do they need another ball-dominant wing scorer next to LeBron and Dwyane Wade? Beats me.

But LeBron wasn't finished. Within a few more minutes, he fired off another tweet, this time calling on Steve Nash's services.

Maybe @SteveNash in a Heat uni! So we can help each other get our 1st ringThu Oct 27 18:32:39 via EchofonLeBron James
KingJames

Here's the kicker: Nash isn't a free agent. He's under contract with the Phoenix Suns for 2011-12 at $11.7 million, which will be his final year before free agency. If the Heat were interested, they'd have to trade for him and match his contract with something similar. The only contracts on the Heat's books that are remotely close to Nash? LeBron, Wade and Chris Bosh, who will each make around $16 million next season. Player acquisitions are a complicated animal in the NBA.

The Heat may need an upgrade at point guard, but it's the longest of longshots that Nash would be that guy. Mario Chalmers, the Heat's point guard who earned a starting gig in Game 6 of the Finals, will be a restricted free agent. Then there's also Norris Cole, the Heat's first-round draft pick, who is a point guard from Cleveland State. Of course, any player in their right mind would want Nash on their team, but they usually don't vocalize it on Twitter, knowing he's not on the market.

Also, we don't know what the new CBA will bring once the lockout is settled. Perhaps the Heat will target Crawford if there's a mid-level exception in place, but the organization would be far better off pursuing a center. Zydrunas Ilgauskas announced his retirement recently and Erick Dampier will be a free agent.

Really, the tweets were mostly bizarre considering the timing of the lockout. But it did get people talking. One of them was Portland Trail Blazers big man LaMarcus Aldridge, who is hosting a charity game in Portland in early November:

@KingJames how are you going to try and steal @JCrossover from us?! I already told Portland to make him feel at home on the 6th.Thu Oct 27 19:55:55 via Twitter for iPhoneLamarcus Aldridge
aldridge_12

Oklahoma City Thunder guard James Harden also chimed in:

@KingJames Aye yo chill out with all this recruiting!!!!!!Thu Oct 27 18:33:58 via EchofonJames Harden
JHarden13

In any normal offseason, Harden's sentiment would be shared by the league office. But James can talk about other teams' players and free agents without being fined or punished by the league for tampering. Why?

Because the lockout is still going on.