When NBA rookie and Under Armour endorser Kemba Walker is asked if youngsters will keep buying basketball shoes if the NBA loses the season to lockout, he doesn't hesitate.
"I think all my fans will," said Walker, the No. 1 draft pick of the Charlotte Bobcats starring in an ad campaign touting UA's entrance into the basketball showe market. "The kids are still playing basketball in high school and college. So they're still going to buy the shoes. As long as they want them, they'll get them."
But industry experts are not as optimistic. Basketball shoe marketers such as Adidas, Nike and UA, and national retailers such as Foot Locker, could lose up to $500 million in sales if the 2011-12 NBA season is wiped out, says Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at the worldwide market research company NPD Group. That's roughly 25% of the $2 billion basketball sneaker market, Cohen said.
About 33% of all basketball shoes are purchased to play basketball, Cohen said. That leaves 67% of the sales from consumers going for the association with an endorser such as Nike's LeBron James— or with the NBA itself, Cohen said.
"The impact would be huge," he said. " Out of sight, out of mind. If the players are not on the court, and the kids aren't thinking about them, they're not going out and getting their shoes."
Nike is thinking along the same lines. One of their TV spots, which aired before halftime of Sunday night's NFL game, is under the slogan "Basketballneverstops." James and Dallas Mavericks star forward Dirk Nowitzki are among the featured NBA players in action.
"Like all basketball fans, we look forward to the lockout being resolved," Nike spokesman Brian Strong said. "But in the interim, we also know that basketball never stops. Through our campaign, we are celebrating the never-ending spirit of the game and the players who love it."
Matt Powell of sporting goods industry analyst SportsOneSource thinks the retail fallout from a lockout is overblown. Basketball sneaker sales were not badly hurt by the 1998-99 lockout, he said. He cites a different impact.
"Kids are still going to play basketball and they're going to need shoes regardless whether the NBA plays or not," Powell said. "Where brands could get hurt is exposing consumers to new styles."
Powell notes that Nike's Jordan brand controls 70% of the business, and Michael Jordan hasn't laced them up on an NBA court since the last lockout.
The company hit hardest, Powell believes, would be Adidas, which is about halfway through an 11-year deal as official outfitter of the NBA. Powell estimates Adidas could lose up to half of its $250 million to $300 million in sales generated annually from licensed NBA merchandise.
Despite the lockout, Adidas is seeing strong sales from endorser Derrick Rose's new signature shoe, the adizero Rose 2, company spokeswoman Stephanie Von Allmen said. Adidas' basketball business grew 25% in the company's last fiscal quarter, she said.
"We hope an agreement is reached as soon as possible. … The global game is bigger than ever before," Von Allmen said, "and the U.S. market continues to grow, with more than 28 million people playing basketball nationwide last year."
g NBA players as athletic endorsers have not taken a hit. For now. McDonald's, for example, is not re-evaluating its sponsorship deal with Miami Heat forward LeBron James.
"McDonald's relationship with LeBron James hasn't changed," company spokeswoman Ashlee Yingling said.
But for the league's national sponsors, including Nike, Anheuser-Busch and Coca-Cola, the lockout situation is tricky, said international marketing expert Al Moffatt, president/CEO of Worldwide Partners, the world's largest international network of owner-operated advertising and marketing communications companies.
Do sponsors pull TV commercials featuring NBA superstars such as Rose, James, Heat teammate Dwyane Wade or Los Angeles Lakers guard Kobe Bryant? Do they cancel sweepstakes and other promotions planned for the new season?
The national TV partners will likely offer sponsors "make-good" spots for any TV ads scheduled to run in canceled games, Moffatt said. But he said they could be hurt financially if they were planning elaborate consumer sweepstakes promotions.
NFL Jerseys
No comments:
Post a Comment